Reading Response: Signs, Causes & Experimentation

In chapter three when talking about signs, Pullman makes the case that peoples’ “cognitive bias in favor of coherence over randomness makes it very easy for us to falsely attribute causes.” He’s basically saying people will try to make sense out of anything, but that can get us into trouble. I feel like I hear examples of this constantly in day to day life.

• A stranger at a bar spilled his beer on my new shoes. It’s a sign I shouldn’t have splurged and spent the amount of money on them that I did.
• The grill at the taco truck in front of your work runs out of gas right before you’re about to place your order. It’s a sign you should’ve just eaten the leftovers I brought from home.
• So and so got caught in 20 minutes of traffic on her way to a first date. It’s a sign the guy isn’t right for her.

Both instances are examples of falsely attributing causes to random events that are happening in my life. That stranger in the bar is probably just clumsy, or drunk and uncoordinated. It was likely just a totally random chance that out of everyone in the bar, he spilled on me. The taco truck running out of gas is just coincidental timing and unpreparedness since they don’t have a backup tank. It could have just as easily been the person behind you in line. The traffic delaying the first date is just traffic. Someone had a random accident or there’s a backup of other people all scurrying in the same direction to first dates, friendly meetups and more. All of these “signs” are just ways to avoid the uncomfortable and unsettling randomness of life.

Pullman goes on to say that “if at all possible, you should try to experiment to prove the case before you try to make the case to others.” Basically, get your facts straight before you make a fool of yourself in front of others. I decided to craft a hypothesis of my own based on the one Pullman provides in the text.

Hypothesis: the smell of coffee wakes my boyfriend up.

Variables: me getting out of bed, sounds before I make the coffee (footsteps in the house, drawers/cabinets closing, the whirring of the coffee machine)

Test: Place candle wax-warmer within reach of bed. Buy coffee scented wax and turn on the wax warmer in the morning to disperse the scent. 

Control: Get out of bed per usual and do not make coffee. If my boyfriend wakes up without the smell of coffee in the house, then my hypothesis that the smell of coffee wakes him up is inaccurate. 

Now I’m sure Pullman would call my mock experiment a silly example like he did his own. However, this silly example is a form of practicing identifying physical evidence, and with practice comes progress. Pullman writes, “If nothing else, you will start recognizing false causes when someone offers them as evidence.” Being able to identify physical evidence or a lack of such can be very influential in whether or not you allow yourself to be persuaded one way or another.